The end is near. Human extinction will occur sooner you thought. At least, according to the Doomsday Argument, it will.
The Doomsday Argument claims to predict the number of future members of the human race given an estimate of the total number of humans born since the beginning of time. It asserts that there is a 95% chance that the human species will become extinct after 9,120 years.
This isn’t some cracked conspiracy theory; it is supported by sound principles of probability. In fact, it has yet to be unproven by mathematicians. Let me explain it to you. Imagine this scenario:
There are two black bags in front of you. They are exactly identical. In one bag, there are ten spheres, numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, … 10. In the other, there are 100 spheres, also numbered. You have to guess how many spheres each bag holds. You’re also allowed to randomly take one sphere from any bag you wish to help you decide. So, you pick one from the right bag. (By the way, you can’t tell how many spheres there are by feeling around in the bag.) The sphere that you chose has the number 7 written on it. From that, you should guess that the right bag has ten spheres.
Okay, I know what you’re thinking. You’re saying that I’m incorrect, because there’s a 50/50 chance of each bag holding ten spheres. Well, that would have been true if you hadn’t chosen a sphere from the bag. But, because you did, we can apply Bayes’ Theorem (a formula that describes how to find the probability of a hypothesis, given evidence). Then, we find that the probability of the right bag holding ten spheres is 91%.
Now, we can apply this reasoning to prove the Doomsday Argument. Let’s say that there are two possible outcomes: early destruction of humanity (ED), or late destruction (LD). In ED, there are 100 billion homo sapiens born, in total. This outcome corresponds to 10 spheres in the bag, from the previous experiment. In LD, there are 10 trillion homo sapiens born (corresponding to 100 spheres in the bag). Suppose you found out that you are the 70 billionth person to be born. Thus, it is much more likely that ED will happen than LD.
Is this making sense so far?
You kept reading, so I’ll assume it did. Let’s continue. According to the Copernican Principle, if each human occupies a random spot in a “timeline” of births, it is likely that each one is about halfway in the timeline. To clarify, if we randomly chose a human, chances are, the human would NOT be among the first 5% of homo sapiens who have ever lived. So, if that human isn’t in the first 5%, then he/she must be in the last 95%, right?
John Leslie used this thought process to calculate the Doomsday Argument. He reasoned that we can be 95% sure that we are among the last 95% of humans to be born. Then, by using 70 billion as an estimate for the number of humans born so far, he calculated that there was a 95% chance that no more than 1.4 trillion humans would be born in the future. Looking at the rate of population growth (or NIR, if you’ve learned AP Human Geography), Leslie estimated that the population would reach that amount, and therefore become extinct, in approximately 10,000 years.
So, that’s the Doomsday Argument. If you’re still here (I wouldn’t blame you if you stopped reading), thanks for visiting my blog and reading this post! In case you’re confused about this concept, you can ask me for any clarifications by commenting, or emailing me. And if you’re scrambling to warn your friends and family about impending disaster, rest assured: humanity will be obliterated, but not during our lifetime.
- “A Primer on the Doomsday Argument.” Anthropic Principle. N.p., n.d. Web. 16 May 2017.
- “Doomsday Argument.” Wikipedia. Wikimedia Foundation, 03 May 2017. Web. 16 May 2017.
- Bostrom, Nick. “The Doomsday Argument: A Literature Review.” The Doomsday Argument: A Literature Review. N.p., 20 Oct. 1998. Web. 16 May 2017.
- Dvorsky, George. “Can the Doomsday Argument Predict Our Odds of Survival?” Io9. Io9.gizmodo.com, 10 Apr. 2013. Web. 16 May 2017.